30 Minutes Of Polling Truths
During election years, many of us consume more political media than usual. With the Internet, it’s easy to drown with the simple amount of content available to us and its corrosive, partisan nature.
Recently, I watched an interview that cuts through much of the chatter. Pollster Frank Luntz sat down with 60 Minutes Australia and delivered a lot of powerful insights in 30 minutes. If you want to understand the 2024 U.S. presidential election, watch it. While Luntz has a long association with the Republican party dating back to the 1990s, he is objective here.
The following are the takeaways I found most interesting. The quotes are Luntz’s direct words:
Americans are making more money than they ever have, but everything costs more. They have less money than they did during the Trump administration. It goes to show it’s not absolute income that matters, but relative income.
Vice President Harris doesn’t want to answer the question “are you better off now than you were four years ago?” because the answer is a ‘resounding no.’ Trump has been unable to hone on this fact, unlike Reagan who originally asked the question.
Voters disliked President Biden’s age the most, not his record.
Harris is getting credit for most of the Biden administration’s successes, but is not getting blamed for its failures.
Immigration is not only about the border. It’s a complex issue that involves security, citizenship and “peace of mind in your daily life.”
“You have every right to change your mind, but not just for an election.” This is one of Harris’s biggest weaknesses, as she took decisive policy positions during her presidential campaign in 2019 but has now reversed them. Case in point: energy policy and fracking.
When anyone (especially a politician) says something three times, it means that the opposite. Thou ‘doth protest too much,’ in the words of Bill Shakespeare.
“Trump reminds women of their first husband’s divorce lawyer.” That unpleasant association explains the incredible gender gap in this election: Trump wins men by 5 points and Harris wins women by 13 points.
When two candidates come together, credibility matters until a threshold is reached, then it comes down to personality. Voters want a “detailed plan of action” then it’s about “who they like and trust and who they think hears them.”
Despite the incredible adversity the U.S. democracy has overcome in its history, it’s at “a breaking point” now.
“We will say and do anything to get elected, then we end up doing the exact opposite.”
Harris’s promise to appoint a Republican doesn’t fix the enormous fissure between the two parties. It’s a start, though won’t amount to much if not accompanied by other gestures.
“What Americans need right now is a just little bit of silence and a lot of understanding and empathy, mutual respect and dignity.”
Trump’s appeal is easy to explain: “People have made promises they haven’t kept. Politicians have said, year after year, election after election, we hear you, we’re listening to you, all that great language. We’ll fight for you. And then nothing changes.”
“The ingredients of a Trump victory are all there: A country that looks like it’s falling behind. A population that’s negative about the future, fearing for their children and the next generation. Trump in the lead on the two key issues (inflation and immigration).
‘The 6% undecideds in 7 states will determine the election. 1% of America will determine the outcome for the other 334 million.’
23% of Americans are “paycheck to paycheck” voters.
“Trump is winning more union voters than any Republican in modern times.”
Harris has to prove that she “bleeds union” to wrest blue collar voters from Trump.
‘Voters vote on their relationship to the candidate, not the candidate’s relationship to their staff.’
‘Foreign policy matters more than polling shows.’
Perhaps Luntz has so much candor because he’s addressing a foreign audience. Perhaps he feels an urgency to the current state of our democracy. Perhaps both.
At any rate, Luntz’s interview is the kind of informative, non-partisan content that makes us better voters.
In case you got too depressed watching or reading, here’s the recent debate songified. It never ceases to put a smile on my face. Hopefully, it puts on on yours too.