A Bad Presidential Debate? Oh no! Anyway…
I find myself channeling my inner Jeremy Clarkson after Thursday’s presidential debate. It didn’t horrify me as much as I thought it would.
Most likely because I’ve already cried and fretted about the state of democracy in the USA. Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s 2018 confirmation hearings seem to be when my crying and fretting reached a peak, for some reason.
My brain has told me that it can’t handle any more meltdowns. I’m trying to oblige.
Almost half of Americans would replace both Biden and Trump, while only 15% would keep both. Unfortunately, there’s not much we can do about it.
Overall, the debate was fairly well run and mildly entertaining, in my view. The fact that the candidates mics were cut if they tried to interrupt meant more decorum in exchange for more rambling. There needs to be more safeguards against lies and falsehoods, but I give credit to the debate organizers for changing up the format after the awful 2020 debates.
I enjoyed the ‘who’s a better golfer?’ conversation. At this point, maybe we should decide the election on the green. Biden looked more poised as time went on, while Trump restrained himself compared to his conduct in 2020. To be fair, that’s not a high bar. I didn’t learn much about either candidate. At this point, would you expect to?
60% of voters thought that Trump won the debate. 20% said Biden won. Predictably, favorability ratings of Trump and Biden didn’t shift that much- up .4% for the former, down 1.5% for the latter- in a deeply polarized electorate, the undecided, independents and moderates are even more important.
Considering how shaky and out of it Biden looked, especially in the first half hour, many are talking about replacing him on the ticket.
That’s unlikely because of how late it’s in the game, the logistical nightmare of replacing an incumbent and the fact Biden polls better than those most likely to be his replacement. Already, Biden and his surrogates are referring to his debate performance as ‘a bad night.’
Biden reminds me of a NFL coach that goes 9–7 or 10–6 year after year, long removed from their glory days. These coaches get into the playoffs, maybe winning a game or two, but never the big one. People are terrified of blowing it up because the results could be much worse and a sense of goodwill for past successes.
In order to replace Biden, I believe one or more of the following situations has to happen:
1. Trump refuses another debate, leaving voters with Biden’s sole dismal performance.
2. Biden has a debilitating, unarguable moment of weakness, such as fainting on stage.
3. Biden’s approval numbers dip below 35% consistently.
If these scenarios happen after the convention, the Democrats are screwed. A replacement that late in the game would be disastrous.
The closest parallel to the current dilemma the Democrats find themselves would be the one they had in 1968. President Lyndon Johnson announced that he would not stand for re-election on March 31st, giving the Democrats several months to pick up the pieces in a system that was much more powered by elites than the average voter.
We have one instance in modern politics of someone being removed from a presidential ticket.
Vice presidential nominee Thomas Eagleton of the 1972 George McGovern campaign had electric shock therapy to improve his mental health in the 1960s. Throughout the summer of ’72, leaks came out about these treatments and Eagleton’s diagnosis of bipolar disorder. On August 1st, after the Democratic Convention, he had to leave the race for Sergeant Shriver. Interestingly, voters indicated that they didn’t care about Eagleton’s mental health struggles, but the McGovern felt pressure from the media which fixated on the treatments.
While a VP being removed is big, they are selected by the presidential nominee. Sure, popularity and name recognition are considered, by the presidential nominee picking their vice president is sort of a remnant of the party elite model. Logically, it would be a far bigger deal to replace a presidential candidate than a vice president.
Biden was clearly chosen by Democratic voters. Throughout the primaries, he faced no serious competition. Regardless of my personal feelings on the mind, replacing him puts a bad taste in my mouth because it emboldens those party elites that wielded power in the smoke filled rooms of ages past.
To be fair, Trump isn’t in a super great position either. He didn’t win the debate as much as Biden lost it. His favorability is low and he continues to be polarizing. For all the talk about Biden’s mental acuity, Trump has had some real impressive brainfarts- I daresay, the best, most bigly brainfarts- during the campaign. It’s possible that Trump has a moment of moments of weakness, along with legal setbacks, that dip his approval ratings.
It’s a tough, tough situation for the country and its voters. Such is the nature of politics, the grand game in which people decide how, why, when, where and to/for whom to distribute resources.
If you’re looking for some humor in all this, check out YouTube channel Schmoyoho’s “Deja Vu (But Worse)” featuring “Weird Al” Yankovic.
At least this election is giving us some comedy.