Some Late Lunges
The last days before Election Day remind me of the final 800 of a cross country race.
You’ve worked so hard.
You’ve done so much.
You want it to be over.
But a weak finish could doom a strong start.
President Trump’s insane rally schedule is him hammering the last 800, hoping to catch the blue shorts in front of him, currently coasting to a strong finish after a strong start.
In the last three days of the campaign, the president is hosting 14 rallies. When today’s all said and done, he will have stopped in Michigan, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. Tomorrow, he will stop at North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and twice in Michigan.
Regardless of your feelings about the man and his policies, the dude can hammer with the best of them.
He hammered in 2016, too.
NPR News Correspondent Ron Elving detailed some “late lunges” of presidential campaigns throughout our history. Regarding Mr. Trump, he pointed out:
“As the outsider challenging the establishment four years ago, Trump crisscrossed the country at a frantic pace, holding by one count 26 rallies across 11 states in the final six days of the campaign- including 10 in eight states in the final 48 hours.
When he did not carry every state he hit on that frantic tour, Trump came reasonably even in places where he lost, such as Nevada, New Hampshire and Minnesota.”
According to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages, this time around, polling is close in several battleground states. VP Biden has a 1.4 point advantage in Florida, 1.2 in Arizona, 0.2 in Ohio, 4.3 in Pennsylvania and 3.6 in Nevada.
VP Biden enjoys a 3.3 point advantage all the battlegrounds averaged together. Election Betting Odds gives him a 64.3% chance to win.
In 2016, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was ahead by 1.1 points and Election Betting Odds gave her a 81.6% chance to win on November 8, 2016. Mr. Trump performed 2.8 points better than the polls, finishing 1.7 points ahead of the Secretary.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Although an incumbent, President Trump still sees himself, and more importantly, his followers still see him, as an outsider challenging the corrupt political establishment. His rapid fire rallies can galvanize his base, reach new voters and show that he doesn’t take any vote for granted.
The president hopes a late surge of enthusiasm and canvassing will carry him across the finish line, following the same strategy from 2016. He’ll need to perform even better than he did in 2016, but that’s not out of the realm of possibility.
Mr. Elving highlights the 1948 July-October train odyssey, aka “whistle-stop tour”, of then-President Harry Truman, who covered some 30,000 miles and addressed 15 million people, according to Mr. Truman’s estimation.
Polling was not nearly as sophisticated or frequent back then, yet the ones that were conducted had Mr. Truman losing by at least five points. There were significant problems with the polling methodology, but there’s no question that the whistle-stop tour helped make Mr. Truman into his own man, rising out of the great FDR’s shadow.
Interestingly, former VP Walter Mondale had a rock concert of a rally in the last weeks of the ’84 campaign, with as many as 100,000 attendees in New York City on November 1st. Mr. Elving quotes one wire service reporter: “so rousing it would have suggested he was the front-runner if the polls did not show otherwise.”
Five days later, he got #murderedbyelectionresults. Mr. Mondale only carried his home state of Minnesota in the Electoral College. President Ronald Reagan won the rest, 528 out 538, a near sweep. The popular vote was a thumping as well: Mr. Reagan winning 58.8% to 40.6%.
An obvious takeaway is that enthusiasm, tons of rallies and huge crowds don’t always translate into victory.
But sometimes they do, especially in a tight race.
It’s the final 800. Joe, in his glorious blue jersey and shorts, complete with the loveable Democratic donkey, is about 200 meters ahead of Donald, sporting a tight red jersey and shorts, a giant picture of his face replacing the giant Republican elephant.
Can the Donald close?
Will his late push pay off as it did for Mr. Truman in ’48, or distract from an election shellacking, as it did for Mr. Mondale in ‘84?
Hopefully, we’ll find out this Tuesday.
Ok, by the end of year.
That’s all I want for Christmas.