The Harristution
With President Biden’s withdrawal, the 2024 presidential campaign got interesting.
Vice President Kamala Harris is off to a solid start, scooping up endorsements from powerful Democrats and raising $200 million as the presumptive nominee. She adds excitement to the race, especially for young and minority voters. It’s hard to quantify the effect, but it’s significant.
The Trump campaign appears to have preparing for a Biden exit for awhile. Still, they will have to recalibrate strategies that were developed when Biden was their opponent.
Harris is in the honeymoon phase. In the upcoming weeks, people will come down to earth and Harris’ flaws will emerge. The New York Times assessed her strengths and weaknesses. They described her communication flubs as a weak point:
“…Harris’s 2019 book, “The Truths We Hold,” was even more laden with platitudes than most books by politicians. Once the (2020 Democratic presidential primary) campaign began, she sometimes seemed unable to describe her own policies, especially on Medicare, and her poll numbers were so weak that she dropped out before the Iowa caucus. As vice president, she made meandering statements mocked by both conservative media and ‘The Daily Show.’
If you can’t describe your policies, then who can? Donald Trump is targeting working class voters in the Rust Belt who propelled him to victory in 2016. These types of voters are understandably concerned about inflation, jobs, housing prices and so on. They want to know how politicians’ policies are going to affect them. If Trump makes the better argument for struggling Rust Belters, then he wins.
Harris’s 2020 campaign was underwhelming and struggled because of her communication issues. Voters struggled to connect with her or her ideas. She peaked at 15% and bottomed out at 3%. If she struggled so much in 2020, why wouldn’t see in 2024, as the head of the ticket?
Harris must avoid ‘word salads’ and communication breakdowns if she to beat Trump. If nothing else, Trump is very good at labeling and branding. His simple, direct style (when not rambling) lends itself to soundbites and clips. Harris needs to counter with shorter, clearer explanations.
For instance, she was assigned to investigate “the root causes” of migration to the USA in 2021. It’s difficult to figure out what exactly she’s found or what she did. Since 2021, she visited the border only once. Unless she can clearly translate how her work with migration helps working class Americans, immigration is a liability for her.
From a strategy standpoint, I agree with Biden stepping down and Harris taking his place. This late in the game, she is best equipped to receive his campaign funds, has more name recognition than state-level governors, senators or representatives and can energizes key Democratic voting blocs. However, her approval rating was 35% prior to Biden dropping out. Now it’s in the low 40s.
Much depends on the following weeks. Harris has to select a V.P. who will balance out her weaknesses. She needs an experienced moderate who will appeal to working class voters. Next, she has to keep the funding train going. It’s one thing to generate record funds for a week. It’s quite another to do so for 3 months. Finally, she has to attack Trump on the issues without resorting to what doomed Hilary Clinton: referring to working class Americans as a ‘basket of deplorables.’
She’s got 100 days.
She’ll need every one.